[SMM Analysis] Progress Bar Loading for Tin Ore Production Resumption in Myanmar's Wa State: How Will the Tin Market Develop Next?

Stalled dewatering operations, collapsed tunnels, and aging equipment have cast uncertainty over the recovery path of the world's third-largest tin producer.

With the convening of the meeting to collect opinions on dewatering issues in deep mine cavities on December 2, 2025, the production resumption process of the Wa State tin mines in Myanmar has once again become a market focus. This meeting aimed to address the technical challenges hindering the resumption of production in the mining area, particularly the water accumulation issues in low-altitude mines, which are directly related to the recovery pace of the global tin ore supply chain.

In recent years, due to the mining ban implemented in Myanmar's Wa State since August 2023, and subsequent problems such as equipment aging, tunnel collapses, and severe water accumulation, the global tin market has experienced persistent supply tightness.

• Enhanced Expectations for Supply Recovery in Myanmar's Wa State, but Bottlenecks Remain

As the world's third-largest tin producer, Myanmar's supply situation significantly impacts the global tin market balance. Since the implementation of the mining ban in August 2023, the production resumption process of Wa State's tin mines has been fraught with twists and turns.

The resumption progress fell significantly short of expectations. According to information from late October, the overall process has been slow since the commencement of mining permit applications in July, primarily due to severe equipment aging, tunnel collapses, and water accumulation problems caused during the shutdown period. Furthermore, the number of mine cavities capable of resuming production decreased from over 100 to 60-70, a reduction of more than one-third.

Dewatering issues have become a bottleneck constraining the resumption of high-yield mining areas. Low-altitude, high-grade mining areas in Wa State are flooded and pose extreme difficulties for restarting. Despite months of dewatering efforts, all operations ceased in early September due to disputes between investors and dewatering contractors over costs and profit sharing, leading to continuously rising water levels.

However, recent positive signals have begun to emerge. With the retreat of the southwest monsoon from Myanmar in mid-October marking the end of the rainy season and the arrival of the clear winter, Myanmar's production resumption process is expected to accelerate.

• Diversification Trend in Global Supply Landscape Becomes Evident

Besides Myanmar, tin supply from other regions is gradually recovering and growing, showing a diversification trend in global tin supply, which plays an important role in easing market tension.

Persistent conflicts in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2025 raised market concerns about a potential shutdown of Alphamin's Bisie tin mine, which accounts for approximately 6% of global supply. However, with the signing of a peace agreement on December 4, concerns regarding African supply have somewhat eased. Indonesia's export situation improved significantly, with tin ingot exports in November showing substantial growth compared to October.

• Inventory Changes Reveal Shift in Market Supply and Demand

LME inventories increased sharply, reaching their highest level since August 2021. As of December 19, LME inventory stood at 4,645 mt, an increase of 220 mt from the previous day. Domestic social inventory also rose. As of December 19, social inventory of tin ingot reached 9,192 mt, up 732 mt from the previous week.

•  Weak downstream demand struggles to support high tin prices

High prices significantly suppress demand: demand in traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and home appliances remains sluggish. Despite significant price fluctuations, trading activity in the spot market has remained relatively muted, characterized by "nominal prices without actual transactions."

Faced with high tin prices, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness is generally restrained. Apart from essential rigid demand, most firms prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach, resulting in minimal actual procurement. Even when prices decline and trading shows some recovery, most domestic smelters maintained a steady production pace in December, keeping tin ingot supply relatively stable.

Looking ahead, tin prices may continue to fluctuate at highs due to rigid supply constraints and low inventory support. However, in the short term, if spot demand fails to improve effectively, the suppressive effect of high prices on actual consumption will persist, and inventory may continue to face some pressure.

• Analysis and Forecast of Future Tin Price Trends

Considering changes in supply-demand fundamentals, tin prices face significant downward pressure in the future, with accumulated risk factors after short-term rallies warranting attention.

Short term, tin prices are likely to fluctuate considerably. Over the medium term (3–6 months), downward pressure on prices is expected to increase notably. As supply from Wa State recovers and African imports rise, the supply side will gradually improve. Meanwhile, with no clear signs of recovery on the demand side, the shift in the supply-demand pattern will exert pressure on tin prices.